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The Limits of Wikipedia

Posted by | technology | One Comment

My hobby is an obscure branch of thermodynamics that has meant I seem to have spent an unusual amount of time reading Wikipedia articles.

What I have found is that Wikipedia is amazingly accurate (contrary to what some would claim) but very badly written (something that isn’t often talked about as a principal flaw).

The accuracy of Wikipedia is usually challenged for topics which have a subjective aspect that people refuse to acknowledge (such as historical events, religion, social sciences), the stuff I have been looking at tends to be less subjective, since it is backed up by far more evidence and has a method for reaching consensus. Here the unusually high level of accuracy of Wikipedia is apparent.

To say that something is badly written is a more difficult thing to prove, however rather than try to do so, I’ll suggest an explanation as to why this would be a plausible outcome. The 1911 Encyclopedia Britannica is regarded as something of a classic, having more articles written by experts in their field than any other issue. In many ways it is the antithesis of Wikipedia.

Reading the 1911 Britannica, for equivalent entries about science and the results are obvious. Wikipedia is more verbose and less clear, and this is what I think is happening:

Wikipedia will always attract a certain percentage of people that the vanity reward of being published would not normally be offered to.

Less intelligent people in technical circles seem to like to make things appear more difficult and use a proprietary language or jargon (computer programmers are often terribly guilty of this) because the language of the craft is relatively hard to master and those that will never go beyond the craft to the art will protect their mastery of the craft.

Less obvious than the above is the fact that people who really know what they are talking about can invent new and better ways of describing things, whereas people who don’t will have to regurgitate accepted wisdom for fear of being wrong on the bits they are re-interpreting .

This last point is the principal reason that, for hard to understand scientific concepts, Wikipedia ironically really falls down, more than for supposed inaccuracy in contentious subjects.

What Happened to Scott McLellan

Posted by | politics | No Comments

The US is moving to the left and the UK to the right. In the US, a Republican PR spokesman has shopped the Bush administration and the owner of Fox News and the Wall Street journal is praising Obama. In the UK someone who went to the same school as Prince William has replaced a Trotskyist as London Mayor and a Bishop makes today’s headlines with a supreme piece of irrational thinking, blaming the culture of the civil rights movement for social decay and secularism for the rise of Islam.

With Scott McLellan shopping the Bush administration, people are wondering why? The answer is to be like his Dad, how ironic that family conservatism should undermine the Republicans:

“McClellan’s father, Barr McClellan, was an attorney for the National Labor Relations Board and then for the Federal Power Commission under Democratic President Lyndon Johnson. Barr McClellan also wrote a book about power and Washington: “Blood, Money & Power: How LBJ Killed JFK.” Published in 2003, the book claims that Texas attorney — and McClellan’s former boss — Ed Clark masterminded the assassination of President John F. Kennedy.” Link

If Murdoch switches from Republican to Democrat he will be doing what he did before in the UK, with a switch from Conservative to Labour. People who actually believe what they preach at the Wall Street Journal and Fox News may be in for a rude awakening. Link

In England, where I am at the moment, there is a palpable shift to the right, not to fiscal conservatism but to anachronistic social conservatism. A scatter-brained Church of England Bishop Michael Nazir-Ali makes headlines in the papers today saying that all the UK’s social problems are a fault of the progressive secular culture and that this creates a moral vacuum that allows for Fundamentalist Islam. In other words secular culture is responsible for bad religion, which is defined as the religion that is not his, and that the moral decay in society is due to what gave us the civil rights movement. Link

The Mitford sisters Letters Published: “With best love and Heil Hitler! Bobo”

Posted by | politics | No Comments

From today’s Guardian review of a book about letters between the upper class Mitford sisters whose contacts with everyone from Kennedy to Hitler are documented.

If ever Hannah Arendt was right about the banality of evil it is here, in black and white:

“The Führer was heavenly, in his best mood, & very gay,” she [Unity Mitford] wrote to Diana [Mitford] in 1935. “He talked a lot about Jews, which was lovely.” She signs off “With best love and Heil Hitler! Bobo”

There is a surreal moment where there article talks about Hitler arriving (while head of state) at Diana’s apartment in London and ringing the doorbell and nobody answering it.

Link

In light of today’s surreal $133 a barrel, oil headline from 2000 reads like something from the Onion

Posted by | america | 2 Comments

“Soaring Oil Prices”

Oil futures rose as high as $30.40 before falling back slightly in trading in London.

US President Bill Clinton said the rise was “deeply troubling” and refused to rule out any US action to deal with the situation.

Source

I am in London at the moment. For the first time ever, Britain feels noticeably wealthier than America, and most of the extreme wealth seems not to be banking but oil related. I suspect the only truth in the term peak oil in the medium term will be the price which will surely come crashing down.

The Great Facebook Apps Disaster

Posted by | technology | One Comment

Facebook looked so set to be the winner amongst social networks that it took what looked like a logical step to cement itself as a platform – become a platform and encourage third party software.

The problem is that it has become a platform for an endless sea of horrid little gimmicky crap that makes Windows shareware look like SAP, and irritates you like a viral infection in the endless arms race to go, well – viral. This is a major cockup since it goes straight to the core of what Facebook had going for them. Facebook had a UI that was actually professional, whereas Myspace was by its very nature gimmicky crap.

Even as Facebook will almost certainly correct itself, some of the damage is already done. With a decline in growth at a time when they are still much smaller than Myspace, their march to dominance will now never be as pristine as Google’s, and some of that decline is surely due to the fact that Facebook has become kind of annoying due to the application platform.

The fault of the failure of Facebook platform of late, is due to the platform itself, not the apps, to say otherwise would be to blame the tools rather than the workman. Because Facebook’s precocious founder, Zuckerberg claimed that the Facebook developer platform would change the world and he had the audacity to snub the likes of Google as recently as this week over access to the API, this is a failure that competitors will probably never let him forget.

McMansions are Built With Paper and Staples

Posted by | architecture | 3 Comments

I thought I should find out how a standard McMansion style house is put together – having been an architect and noticing that they seemed to be really badly built. I did some reading up.

The standard construction materials are essentially: timber of the same grade used for temporary hoardings (structure); expensive garbage bags (DPMs); bubble pack grade plastic (siding, soffits, sills); staples; Tyvec envelopes and fly paper (weather proofing).

The principal American domestic architecture of the last 20 years consists of a building type based on ascetic Protestant architecture designed to minimize flamboyance or display of wealth, which is then blown up to a large scale to do just that, complete with neo-baroque trimmings (ironically from catholic architecture) which are made out of plastic.

This same building form spans an entire sub-continent with a climate that ranges from tundra to tropical and culture that varies from Appalachian to Amerindian. It is constructed using materials that are of lower quality that the packaging in most consumer goods. It is an architectural tragedy, whose only saving grace is that, unlike concrete brutalism, it is bio-degradable.

Is Google Beatable by Re-inventing Search?

Posted by | search engines | No Comments

Powerset have a demo out and its interesting, technically proficient and built by a solid team, but winning requires questioning the premise: is better search a problem and is it solved by changing the way people are currently used to searching to the the way people naturally speak?

Google is a long term threat to Microsoft’s hegemony not by having built a better OS, but by owning Search. The web shifted the landscape of technology and a a once niche application, dominated by companies like Verity: full text search, became the ‘command line of the web’. Since Microsoft had always owned the command line, this made web search a strategic threat.

Powerset has some very bright people like Barney Pell behind it, and who am I to challenge it, but I have a nagging doubt, which is to do with my years spent in architecture rather than technology. In architecture the first thing you do is question the brief: if someone asks you for a building with a sloping facade, you ask why and you may have a good reason for doing something differently. If someone asks you for a better search engine, you would ask why. Here is my asking why.

If the value in building a better search engine is to beat Google, perhaps Google can only be beaten when something other than a search engine becomes a starting point for the web. It doesn’t take a stretch of the imagination to see that if Facebook became a truly monopolistic social network it would be a strategic threat to Google. If building a better search engine is the way to beat Google then Powerset is on the right track.

Is the way to build a better search engine based on the ability to answer questions the way they are spoken? If so, then natural language technology is the right approach and Powerset is on the right track. A few years ago this would definitely be the case, but these days, the ergonomics of the web have evolved in tandem with Google. People don’t tend to type question into search engines, but type a few salient words. This may not be the most elegant practice, but it is the de facto standard behavior and to try and change it might be like trying to change the QWERTY keyboard for a more rational one.

Assuming that there is a better search practice than currently used, how does Powerset stack up when natural language queries are typed into it. This would require very thorough testing, but I’ll give on example: ‘who was churchills father’ [sic]. Both sites return the correct answer, but Powerset requires adding an apostrophe: churchill’s, not a big deal for them to fix but a perfect example of how a simple grammatical rule dealt with by query parsing can sometimes get forgotten in the attempt to index perfectly.

Lastly, intelligent indexing comes at a cost – it may be slower to query, and it is definitely slower to index. Quick response time has always been a priority for search – and Powerset can possibly match. But the biggest change on in search in this second phase of the web, has been the rise of ubiquitous, news style (e.g. weblog) publishing systems and the importance of search by date. AltaVista’s last throw of PR success against Google was their news search which was pounded after 911, before Google News, let alone weblog search existed. Fast updates require fast indexing.

I wish Powerset every success, and think that this will come when something else is thrown into their mix.

Crossing the Chasm Jumps the Shark

Posted by | software design | No Comments

Leigh Himel sensibly questions whether Crossing the Chasm is still relevant Not only are many technology products part of a mature market where design is a premium over features (expensive hifis have few features and sound good and these days iPods are like this), but Leigh suggests that people themselves as technology buyers are maturing which changes the marketplace overall.

I’d go one step further: crossing the chasm was and still is pseudo-scientific nonsense. Nonsense, because it takes something that is true but ultimately dull (the ubiquitous bell curve) and slices it into a shape that is practically impossible to translate to any mathematical model of real events and which has no empirical evidence of existence anywhere, anyway.

Crossing the Chasm works as a meme the way self help books, therapy, diet pills or creationism do – it provides a too good to be true gimmick explanation for the way things are that appeals to people who want the truth to be convenient, and easily memorizable rather than understandable and based on evidence.

To be fair, the original book was less pernicious because it was more qualitative than subsequent interpretation. But that’s to say its harmless, in the way that homeopathic water is more harmless than blood letting. Neither are provably effective.

One thing is for sure, the Internet has created a landscape for reliable, realtime, quantitative analysis of marketing, and with it the marketing landscape itself is maturing.

I bequeath to you all my dung

Posted by | business | No Comments

The Guardian today has a good article on why Origins.net’s latest genealogical database is a particular gem, putting online a particularly rich set of English wills from 1470 to 1856. The wills show just what people left to each other, hundreds of years ago, including a Mrs Adowne who was fulfilled when her dying tenant, Robert Sherlocke, granted her “all the soil and dung that I have”.

Article here.

The wills can be accessed by subscription, here.

Does Social Networking Kill Search?

Posted by | Uncategorized | 2 Comments

Despite the attention grabbing headline, this article raises a simple and fair point that search brings results base upon links from people you don’t know, whereas Social Network search could return results your friends like.

There are actually three rather than two possible models on the Internet:

The Curations model: experts recommend.
The Search model: the crowd recommends.
The Social Network model: friends recommend.

Each will have its place and will be based upon the economics and availability of people producing the content people are looking for.

For example the Yellow Pages market will possibly fragment:

1. Curations: Zagats expert or Weblog writing key influencer model will work for high end restaurants and items you see in fashion magazines etc. (1 Zagats review of Nobu beats 100 Pizza eating teenage reviewers).

2. A Social Network will work for where trust is required (I’d rather trust my friends over a celebrity to recommend a Baby Minder).

3. The Search model for things like commodities based on price, such as where to buy Vacuum Cleaner (my friends might not know the best deal).

There will be overlap between the services and the types of things that they are useful for, but all three will survive as separate entities.