Tomorrow’s parliamentary vote in the UK will be a test of how much trouble Blair is in. The Independent has a handy guide to how to interpret the number of Blair’s own party voting against the government, my guess is around 125 will:
“FEWER THAN 100 a relief for Mr Blair, who could claim the tide had turned his way since last month’s vote.
MORE THAN 121 the biggest Commons rebellion by members of a governing party.
132 OR MORE a body blow to Mr Blair, as it would mean he could not command the support of more than half of Labour backbenchers.
173 OR MORE danger signals flashing for Mr Blair as, depending on the number of abstentions, he would have to rely on the votes of Tory MPs to win a Commons majority. Mr Blair could be in jeopardy if the war went badly.
206 OR MORE meltdown for the Prime Minister. More than half of Labour’s MPs, including ministers, would have voted against him. He might even be forced to quit after the war. “