1. US loses control of middle east foreign policy.
Israel says will use Nuclear tipped warheads to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, unless the US attacks.
Saudi Arabia says will invade Iraq to protect Sunni Iraqis if the US pulls out.
The president has a mandate for neither of the options allowed to him, domestically.
2. Recession signs.
Weather related losses, over leveraged debt, house price declines a weak dollar and middle east political instability. The sooner the inevitable recession comes, the quicker and milder it will be, 2007 if we are lucky, but probably 2008.
3. Global warming hits reinsurance.
Insurance has traditionally been a guaranteed money maker, you asses the risk and take a premium while the government pays to mitigate much of that risk, with things like the police and fire services and the military. But the weather is different, and the weather will play a bigger factor than ever in Insurance and nobody will have the correct risk model. At the top of this house of cards is re-insurance. Only the biggest will be able to survive and 2007 may see the first collapses.
4. Fox news fires O’Reilly.
Rupert Murdoch is not a Republican. He is someone who produces what people want to hear. Less people will want to hear people like O’Reilly so he will be canned and Fox will move away from the embarrassing failure of neo-conservatism.
5. First web 2.0 flameouts, although bubble keeps growing.
Who will be the new Boo.com. There are too many stupid web 2.0 companies and there will be a die off starting this year, even if the mini bubble continues for another year or so.
6. Microsoft flatlines after initial vista hype wears off.
Microsoft used to own the command line. Now Google do. Millions of dollars of promotional spend on Vista will wear off quickly, a Microsoft ‘s stock price will start a long slow decline.
7. Socialists win French presidential elections.
Arguable France needs Sarkozy like the UK needed Thatcher in the late 70’s, but they won’t get him.
8. Bush betrayed by the right. Bush’s fate is controlled by his own people, not the Dems. Somewhere there is probably a piece of paper that proves that he lied to go to war in Iraq. If someone decides to slide that to a reporter across a car park floor in DC, then his last days in office will not be the stalemate that the Democrats have in store for him.
9. Gordon brown becomes uk prime minister.
But does win the next election.
10. Democrats make choice between socially liberal fiscally conservative libartarianism and Lou Dobbs style perochial neo-fascism.
Lets hope that the Dobsians don’t derail things.