Market Crash Imminent

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The Stock Market is about to crash, soon. If you think that this won’t affect the mini tech bubble, get ready for your adsense revenues to halve in the six months following. I suspect, however, that this crash will be bad enough to make things like that mere ‘trifles’. FSU Editorial: “2007 Market Crash” by Greg Silberman 07/26/2007

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The business model for the web.

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Web businesses will succeed based upon their competitive advantage in acquisition of the finite resource of attention. The quantitative measure of this will be the cost per bit, where the cost is the acquisition cost per user divided by the amount of time and therefore the number of potential transmittable ‘bits’ the users’ attention is captured for. Traditional economics is based upon the notion of scarcity. But this scarcity tends to be relevant only in the production, not the consumption of things. This is because the cost per unit of consumable energy, or more generally, information – the bits consumed per bit delivered is usually very high. As an example, the number of bits of information in the atoms that make up a book is much higher than the atoms that store the book in digital form on a computer. Because of this, the cost of duplicating a computer file…

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I’m going to be a dad!

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My wife is now nearly 4 months PREGNANT! So we’re launching a kids and baby site for Wists, called Yokiddo. Hopefully by saturating ourselves with fun kids stuff to look at, such as a $3M model of Moscow or Craftsman’s ‘my first chainsaw’, we will exorcise the need to actually buy any.

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Is Rim the new Microsoft?

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Is Rim the new Microsoft? The graph says it all. Far from denting the Blackberry maker’s stock, RIM has actually outpaced Apple’s massive surge since the iPhone announcement at the beginning of the year. Windows 3.1 was shabby compared to the original Mac OS, but businesses liked Microsoft because its very absence of polish made it seem less like an indulgence. Bottom line: Rim is the Microsoft of the business cellphone market, and there is a lot of money to be made there. The iPhone is years ahead of the Blackberry, but its presence creates context making Rimm’s the business device and Apple’s the consumer one.

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Why are US newspapers so bad when it comes to international news.

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Today a globeandmail.com: Suicide bomber killed 24 Pakistani soldiers. this is a very important story following on from the Red Mosque siege, but it has had very little coverage in the US. Financial news in newspapers and television in the US is far superior to Europe, but international news is either nonexistent or terrible. I would suggest that keeping the public informed of what is happening in Pakistan at the moment, would be an investment better spend than a significant portion of the defense budget.

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Why Facebook is hyped so.

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Silicon Valley, with its safe little world of unisex ponytails, mid-range Cabernet, fresh faces, expensive bicycles, big white teeth and university style suburban planning (and I’m talking about Sand Hill Road, where the VCs’ fraternities are, here), is an awful lot like a University. Every social network has its particular neighborhood feel and Facebook, which started in the elite Universities, has the same feel as Silicon Valley. I heard someone who had built a very successful web company describe Facebook as ‘the Internet’. So I ask you. Is that statement based upon business acumen or the experience of using a social network that feels familiar but mirrors a relatively small community’s world?

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Trivia – Pandoras ‘box’ was a mistranslation.

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Trivia – Pandoras ‘box’ was a mistranslation. Pandora – Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia The mistranslation of pithos as “box” is usually attributed to the sixteenth century humanist Erasmus of Rotterdam when he translated Hesiod’s tale of Pandora. Hesiod uses the word “pithos” which refers to a jar used to store grain. It is possible that Erasmus confused “pithos” with “pyxis” which means box. The scholar M.L. West has written that Erasmus may have mixed up the story of Pandora with the story found elsewhere of a box which was opened by Psyche

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