predictions

Microdocs suggests that Microsoft must compete with ‘the Google Operating System’. From a technical perspective it would be very easy for Google to become closer to the features offered by an OS. Previously I suggested that Google could start immediately with a much better ‘Find’ facility than the terrible Windows version, which is painfully slow and doesn’t do full text search over documents on your hard drive. From a business perspective, however, Google is unlikely to anything obviously hostile to Microsoft. Nobody wants to repeat the mistake that Netscape made when they tried to take on Microsoft and lost spectacularly.

The Gulf War made CNN, it was the cable news covered war. Since that war, the web has emerged: this is the web covered war, from moblogged war protests to webloggers in Iraq, the channels of choice are weblogs. The independant reports: “The internet has democratised everything – including being a war correspondent.” Independant: News agencies lose battle on the internet

Here’s a prediction: someone will say something overtly political at tonight’s next week’s Oscars causing a huge outburst of feigned surprise. Here’s another prediction, if nobody says anything political tonight, calls of conspiracy and much thespian flapping will follow. It’s a bit like the celebrity Catch-22 below: “Daniel Day-Lewis, Best Actor nominee for ‘Gangs of New York,’ described the Catch-22 that celebrities find themselves in — as they are constantly quizzed by reporters about their political views. ‘The media are sick and tired of people in my profession giving their opinion, and yet you’re asking me my opinion,’ said Day-Lewis. ‘And when I give it you’ll say, ‘Why doesn’t he shut up?”” United Press International: Analysis: Is a Hollywood blacklist coming?

There is renewed optimism about the potential of the Internet and digital technologies. My prediction: its a good time to invest in innovative technology, but for the Telecoms and Media companies investors haven’t yet faced up to the fact that they are companies that are based on business models stemming from the world of fixed circuit phone calls and analog media. This is gone forever. “most dotcoms have failed, and the telecommunications industry, which raced to build the infrastructure for cyberspace, is staggering under $1 trillion of debt. Yet it would be wrong to conclude that this is the end of the internet revolution. Boom and bust often follow the introduction of radically new technologies. In the 1870s America’s railroad industry boomed in much the same way as the world’s telecoms industry in the late 1990s, only to collapse in a similar heap of bankruptcies, accounting scandals, stockmarket losses and…

A predictably excellent essay by Clay Shirky on the threat to phone companies from Voice Over IP and WiFi networks. “they’ve [the Telcos] digitized their entire network up to the last mile, but are still charging the high and confusing rates established when the network was analog.” Shirky: Customer-owned Networks and ZapMail Clay describes Fed Ex’s failed fax service – where they supplied a network of faxes and charged less than physical delivery of documents. This failed because people bought faxes themselves. Clay asserts that charging existing rates for telephone calls is a scam that can only be pulled off if the Telcos keep control of the last mile. If people buy products like SIP phones (Internet phones) and use the Internet then they have taken control of the last mile. Whilst this is great stuff, there is an addendum to the argument. The problem is that this assumes that…

Although not very well known in the US, Espotting has search engine paid placement sewn up in Europe. As Overture faces pressure from Wall St. to maintain growth to justify its current valuation, Espotting looks like an obvious acquisition target to improve Overture’s position in Europe.

1. Verity will dominate enterprise search trailed by Autonomy with Google nipping their heels at the low end. 2. The categorization space will cease to exist other than a few niche players, possibly Stratify and InXight. 3. The enterprise portal space that effectively vaporized with the acquisition of Epicentric and mundane performance of Plumtree will be replaced by EAI vendors. They will raise the portal idea to the next level, linking enterprise applications that have standardized web services based APIs. 4. There will be an inevitable weblog backlash as big players show interest but get it wrong. 5. There will be an XML backlash as people realize that companies have been paying lip service to standards whilst building a colossal Tower of Babel. 6. Telco’s that did not get burnt by 3G licenses such as Italia Telecom will go on shopping sprees and get some good stuff cheap. 7. Japan…