“Our best estimate of the likely duration of the war (given the evolution of the war thus far, and assuming that the United States is able to maintain its maneuver-based strategy) is approximately 3

There is a nasty air of schadenfreude around the doomsayers just as there has been too much gung-ho jingoism by the optimists. Neither are healthy and the fact is that it is too early to judge the success of failure of the Iraq war. What is clear, however, is that everything hinges on an uprising.

The frighteningly erudite Joshua Marshall: “Yesterday, The Washington Monthly released my new article on the Bush administration’s grand plan for reforming the entire Middle East. One assertion many found difficult to believe was my claim that the administration would soon seek to provoke wars with Syria and Iran. Today, Don Rumsfeld threatened both countries with just that.” Practice to Deceive via Nick Denton

“Surely this is a bipartisan issue. While many on the antiwar side complain about the media’s alleged “pro-war bias,” those who support the war, and the Bush administration itself, have also been ill served by overly-positive coverage that now has millions of Americans reeling from diminished expectations. “ “Here, then, is a list of stories that have been widely misreported or poorly reported so far: 1. Saddam may well have been killed in the first night’s surprise attack (March 20). 2. Even if he wasn’t killed, Iraqi command and control was no doubt “decapitated” (March 22). 3. Umm Qasr has been taken (March 22). 4. Most Iraqis soldiers will not fight for Saddam and instead are surrendering in droves (March 22). 5. Iraqi citizens are greeting Americans as liberators (March 22). 6. An entire division of 8,000 Iraqi soldiers surrendered en masse near Basra (March 23). 7. Several Scud missiles,…

Slovenians hit the streets on Wednesday to protest their inclusion in the coalition of the willing. “Small problem: The lovely Alpine nation isn’t a member. ‘When we asked for an explanation, the State Department told us we were named in the document by mistake,’ Prime Minister Anton Rop said at what Reuters called ‘a hastily arranged news conference.’” They Got the ‘Slov’ Part Right (washingtonpost.com)

“Judicial Watch said it had filed complaints ‘for the unlawful proliferation of nuclear technology, the unlawful trafficking of arms and military technology, and the violation of UN trade sanctions imposed after the 1991 Gulf War, as well as additional UN sanctions relating to the so-called ‘oil-for-food’ program’.” Herald Sun: Interpol urged to probe Chirac [29mar03]

“From official announcements to coverage in state-controlled media to cooperation with other countries’ health experts, government responses to the flu-like disease that struck southern China have been sluggish and at times nonexistent.” While there are reports of how communication via the Internet and increased preparedness for bio-terrorism have been of crucial importance in dealing with SARS, China has hidden figures and information that could have catastrophic consequences. The case of SARS illustrates perfectly the need for greater information flow, and this applies elsewhere. In a war, as they say, the first casualty is the truth. There are legitimate reasons to censor future events, but for reporting events that have already happened then censorship for reasons of keeping up morale, preventing panic or avoiding upsetting people is not worth the risk. The availability of pro and anti-war debate on weblogs of Al-Jazeera and FOX is part of the democratization of news…

Matt Welsh points out that news about the Iraq war provides a veil which keeps normally newsworthy items from the headlines: “Daniel Drezner Keeps Eyes Off Ball: And finds five dictators cracking down while the world’s gaze lies elsewhere. Someone oughtta do a non-war-news news blog”

Until the First World War, soldiers had generally dressed to impress. The British Redcoats, as the name suggests, wore bright red. The aim was to be as visible and intimidating as possible. Today this would be like walking around wearing a target. Accurate firearms introduced the need for the opposite strategy – to become invisible. Today, the simplest form of camouflage, the colors green or beige, are synonymous with the army, but this has only been the case for less than a century. In some situations, 21st century western technology renders traditional camouflage obsolete, being out in the open at all for an under equipped enemy is a risk – wearing a military uniform is like walking around wearing a target. This is why Iraqi soldiers will cynically dress as civilians, by stepping out of their camouflaged clothing they become camouflaged – invisible.