Predictions for 2007

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2006 Predictions 1. US loses control of middle east foreign policy. Israel says will use Nuclear tipped warheads to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, unless the US attacks. Saudi Arabia says will invade Iraq to protect Sunni Iraqis if the US pulls out. The president has a mandate for neither of the options allowed to him, domestically. 2. Recession signs. Weather related losses, over leveraged debt, house price declines a weak dollar and middle east political instability. The sooner the inevitable recession comes, the quicker and milder it will be, 2007 if we are lucky, but probably 2008. 3. Global warming hits reinsurance. Insurance has traditionally been a guaranteed money maker, you asses the risk and take a premium while the government pays to mitigate much of that risk, with things like the police and fire services and the military. But the weather is different, and the weather will play a…

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Cities in 2006

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Following Jason’s My Year in Cities, 2006 (kottke.org). Here’s lists of cities visited this year: (The reason I’m doing this is I’m collecting lists for some new Wists features, which I’ll be able to show shortly). New York, NY Philadelpia, PA Austin, TX San Francisco, CA Seattle, WA London, England Geneva, Switzerland Paris, France Barcelona, Spain and bonnie Selkirk!

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Threads – nuclear war and its aftermath

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Threads, was a drama, about the build up and aftermath of a full scale nuclear war – like ‘The Day After’ but less sanitized. It terrified me when I first saw it in 1984, it still terifies me. Nuclear War was the anxiety of my generation, as we grew up. Yet today, in part due to the incompetence of the Bush foreign policy, the nuclear threat is possibly greater than ever. Watch Threads and realize just how pathetic war is.

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The Century of The Self

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All four of Adam Curtis’ excellent documentaries about the mechanisms behind ‘manufactured consent’ are on Google video. Here is the last and poss the best: The Century Of The Self – Part 4 of 4 – By Adam Curtis – Google Video

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Web 2.0 is an aftermarket for Google

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Dave says: “Web 2.0 is nothing more than an aftermarket for Google.” Amen. Dave predicts that we’ll know when the web 2.0 bubble bursts when Google’s stock crashes. This will happen when the ad market stutters again. Google is the infrastructure that routes ad revenue to many startups, but the crash comes when the ad market stops growing at the same pace. My guess is that this will be half way through next year when consumer spending drops triggered by the real estate market crash. Imagine what all those business plans look like with their eCPMs halved.

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Calling bullshit on my own startup

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I coined the term ‘Social Shopping’ and put it in the masthead of Wists, largely as a joke. The joke was that I could imagine people pitching an idea like Wists to VC’s as: look we’ve wedded social networking to shopping, i.e. community plus money equals more money. Unfortunately three people did pitch this and they all raised money, and one of them is actually rather good. I’ll post more about Wists and ‘social shopping’, over the next few weeks. In the mean time, it seems that It seems that Sucharita Mulpuru of Forrester and Kate Kaye of Click Z are seeing social shopping with a clear head. Click Z on social Shopping

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Don;t go and see the Bodies Exhibition

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On the way back from a nice walk this afternoon, I learned the truth about the BODIES…The Exhibition. At the South Street Seaport, near where we live. Some background to this. When I was a student I worked at the Royal Academy in London, during the holidays. In the basement there is a sculpture of a crucifiction, with one unusual aspect – its real. The artist, Stubbs, bought an executed prisoner’s corpse, flayed him, nailed him to a cross and took a plaster cast, in order to do anatomical studies. Seeing this a night in the darkened basement of a near deserted museum after closing time made some impact. Now I learn that plagiarized versions of the Van Hagens Bodyworks exhibitions, such as the ‘Bodies’ exhibition use corpses that probably come from executed Chinese prisoners, possibly prisoners of conscience. I have absolutely no problem with anatomical exhibits, however the use…

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I just saw a Zune, and guess what? Its a piece of shit.

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Imagine your son waking up on Christmas (if you’re into Christmas) morning and rushing to open his presents in breathless anticipation of getting a shiny new iPod, only to find out he’s got a Zune, which is like coming second in chess. You think he’s being a spoilt little ungrateful brat until he (this is why it’s a he) gets the shit kicked out of him at school by mocking friends chanting ‘Zuny Zuny Zuny’. Yup, in the twisted ‘Lord of the Flies World’ of young adults, I’m sure this will actually happen. The Zune is unsafe for children, but surely that can’t be Microsoft’s fault? Consider the ambiance of a cubicle divided office vs the average home. Cubicle offices, particularly in America, where deep plan spaces with no visible windows are legal, are soul crushing spaces. They destroy people’s individuality in a way that Stalin never could have dreamed…

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