Financial mess leading to early signs of political instability

Posted by | globalization | No Comments

A reasonably restrained doomsday piece by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in the UK’s Telegraph: World stability hangs by a thread as economies continue to unravel.

His point about the BJP (Hindu Extremists) possibly gaining power after the Mumbai attacks, something that was not triggered by the financial crisis, is playing on the emotional reaction of immediate news and the notion that Chinese wages declining as a percentage of GDP is a disaster, hides the fact that massive GDP growth makes this inevitable.

Nevertheless, unless this time is different, history will repeat itself and there will be some very dangerous political consequences of the global recession and some of those may take place under our noses.

Whats the Story Morning Glory Riddle

Posted by | trivia | No Comments

whats the storyabbey road

Given the riddle like title, Oasis’ obsession with the Beatles, the similarity of the scene depicted to the Abbey Road album cover and the the supposed symbology within Abbey Road, I am surprised that nobody has considered that “(What’s the Story) Morning Glory”, might be a riddle.

Not that I really care, but I do like riddles.

AIG Coverup

Posted by | business | One Comment

aig board

[ picture above shows the AIG board in 2005, with “a tradition of providing very long-term incentives to key managers of American International companies around the world“, according to the insurer’s annual report for 2002 ]

In France, decades of socialist policy have resulted in a sense of entitlement amongst workers, while decades of monetarist policy in the US and UK have resulted in a sense of entitlement amongst managers.

After the embarrassment of expensive, taxpayer paid, corporate retreats and huge continuing compensation, this week, the bottomless, bail-out money pit, called AIG, used their PR machine to congratulate themselves publicly, that bonuses and salary would be reduced for top executives.

To highlight the sleight of hand here, in case you missed it, they used tax payer money to make themselves look self-sacrificing, while not sacrificing anything but tax payer money. But the real chutzpah is that they aren’t even doing that really. As this story in the FT reveals, AIG are burying compensation in large ‘retention bonuses’, and releasing this news over Thanksgiving to hide it further.

I am in France, for a month, where I have already just about gotten into a fight for shouting at someone tagging a 17th Century building in broad daylight.

Sadly, in France, where the state gives you so much, it breeds a culture of entitlement which reveals itself in the little things, like people not bothering to pick up dog shit, or rich looking kids out shopping, carrying bags of purchases from expensive stores, defacing three century old buildings right in front of the cops (that was the scenario). Of course, there is graffiti in America, just as there is dog shit, but there are fewer punks at street level, with an endemic sense of entitlement.

In America, where the state gives ordinary people way too little, people tend to be polite and pick up their dog shit. There is, however, a different culture of entitlement there, and it is at the corporate level where the private sector has given so much for so long. Ironically, rather like ordinary French people, for non-ordinary people like AIG management, the state is now giving them so much. A tax payer bailout of AIG is surely necessary, but it has been justified so that ordinary people suffer less, not management.

Technically, AIG executives may be behaving within the law, if only because the law hasn’t caught up with what’s currently happening. In moral terms, however, they are behaving in a manner much worse than some self-entitled punk defacing an ancient monument. The manner of what they are doing is also very different – they are trying to cover up their mess.

As everyone knows, its the coverup that gets you.

Link. Commentary.

How to win friends

Posted by | ingroup outgroup | One Comment

prisoners
goats

Suppose you are captured by a warring enemy. What is the best survival strategy based on gaining sympathy from your captors?

This is something I am interested in finding an answer to, and I suspect the result is not obvious. Conventional wisdom holds that you should find common ground, show similarity and appear human, to solicit empathy. For example, you might talk about how much you know about and respect your captives’ culture, music, sports teams and display human emotions of suffering or distress, longing for family etc.

However, it turns out that researchers believe that: “some emotions are considered unique to humans [(e.g., love, regret, nostalgia)] whereas others are viewed as common to both humans and animals [(e.g., joy, anger, sadness)]” and that the human emotions are reserved for the ‘ingroup’. When you are a captive, you are part of the ‘outgroup’.

I suspect that in the same way we pamper pets that we feed non-pet livestock, we further differentiate between pets and human members of our tribe. There is evidence that there are emotions that we consider uniquely human and we we will sometimes not consider “outgroup” people to be capable of those emotions.

When it comes to being a captive, it may be that the best strategy is to attempt to solicit the empathy someone would have for a pet rather than the outgroup, or livestock. To try to appear human or part of the ingroup might actually backfire. Although the following quote from a study on ‘infrahumanization‘ (ingroup vs outgroup as opposed to dehumanization which is ingroup vs animal) is ambiguous, it does hint at the possibility of that backfiring.

Jeroen Vaes. On the behavioural consequences of infra-humanization:

“They found that ingroup members reacted negatively to outgroup members’ attempts to humanise, offering less help and withdrawing faster than when the same uniquely human emotion was expressed by an ingroup member or when the outgroup member expressed a non-uniquely human emotion”.

I have a hunch that the best you can hope for, in the short term, as a captive, is the status of a pet. In the long term, however, what is the best strategy for joining a group?

Looking around I can’t find any decent studies which show tests of ingroup joining strategies.

Valleywag Folds(in)

Posted by | blogging | One Comment

Valleywag folds, or not quite – it gets spliced into Gawker and the URL stays.

For my sins, I came up with Valleywag’s name, but never really liked it, compared with other Gawker properties, not because I think its cruel to gossip about media shy millionaire geeks, but because gossip about them isn’t that interesting.

The recession gives an excuse to kill Valleywag, without looking defeated, firing a goodbye torpedo at Web 2.0 in general and distancing Gawker from the coming tech. startup train wreck.

The Death of Iceland

Posted by | business | No Comments

“Think of Ireland. Rotate it 90 degrees clockwise, make it a third bigger and hang it like a pendant from the Arctic Circle. Crack open the earth’s crust below to release limitless supplies of geothermal steam, then fill its territorial waters, all 200 miles of them, with an abundance of cod…Now allow this country’s banks – virtually unregulated – to borrow more than 10 times their country’s gross domestic product from the international wholesale money markets. Watch as a Graf Zeppelin of debt propels its self-styled “Viking Raiders” across the world’s financial stage, accumulating companies like gamblers hoarding chips. Then sit on the sidelines as the airship flies home and explodes, showering its blazing wreckage over this once proud, yet tiny, nation.”

Robert Jackson’s definitive piece about Iceland. A middle class, white, failed state..

via the excellent Naked Capitalsm

French GDP beats Germany and UK

Posted by | predictions | 6 Comments

After years of econo-racist put downs about France from wild-eyed libertarian, nutcases, a country with a great quality of life and a degree of balance, gets its revenge. France has narrowly avoided recession this quarter with the only growing GDP in Europe, outstripping both the UK and Germany.

Sure setting up a company is a nightmare in France, and it is living in its past, culturally. But it is not exactly Communist, with the word’s largest retail chain after Walmart, and living in a glorified museum isn’t so terrible. Workers are more productive in France than the US (GDP per hour worked), and you actually get vacation time. Its social healthcare system provides more comprehensive cover than the patriotically championed UK National Health Service and is twice as efficient as the US’s virtually non-existent one. The veiled racism (no pun intended) about the dangers of Islamification of France and of anti-Semitism, forget that there are more Jews in France than anywhere else in Europe (twice the Jewish population of the UK) and it is still the most secular nation in Europe, which is much more secular than the US. Most important of all, however, it is a country famous for food, wine and sex. Far more fun than working 50 weeks a year, eating fried food and being preached at.

France is a nice place to live. It will be interesting to see how long it is before half of the 200,000 French living in London question what it has to offer without money, and I give Loic Lemur 6 months before he returns from an agreeable, but ultimately parochial, Bay Area.

Remembering World War I and Pershing

Posted by | diary | No Comments

bombbombbombbomb

At 5am this morning, 90 years ago, the armistice that ended WWI was signed. This will be the last major anniversary commemorated by veterans, since there are only 10 surviving and the youngest is 107. Ironically, I owe my life to the conflict itself, because my great-grandfather’s brother was killed, and his fiance ended up marrying my great-grandfather.

Although the truce was agreed in the early morning, it did not come into effect, officially, until 11am. This technicality resulted in a horrifying fact. In the 6 hours between 5 and 11, three times as many people were killed as America has lost during the entire Iraq War or 911. More people were killed than in the D-Day landing, and more Americans were killed than any other nation. This was because most generals decided to stop fighting, but America’s commander, Pershing, specifically ordered attacks right up until the last minute.

In Pershing’s defense, he believed that the enemy needed to be forced into unconditional surrender, or there would be another war, and that every last second should be used to smash them to a pulp. The consensus view, however, points to the opposite, that it wasn’t the softness of the allies that eventually caused the Second World War, but the harshness of war reparations, German economic collapse and subsequent climate of political unrest and extremism. After seeing millions of people being slaughtered, you would have thought that Pershing might have had enough. If I’m wrong, Pershing’s posthumous reputation has been imperceptibly dented by an obscure blogger. If I’m right, Pershing is responsible for thousands of people’s deaths due to his arrogance, incompetence and blood lust.

Despite these losses on the last day of WWI, America has never had its equivalent of the battle of the Somme (although the Civil War comes close), the resulting patriotic capitulation and distaste for: war; national debt and people like Pershing. And people still take pictures of families sitting on bombs, smiling.