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Why Revenge Against Wall Street Makes Business Sense

Posted by | business | One Comment

In Animal Instincts: Main Street Seeks Revenge on Wall Street, Robert Roy Britt and Jeanna Bryner argue unemotionally about why emotional needs should to be satisfied in a banking bailout, for business reasons.

In a free market economy, it doesn’t make sense to complain about executive pay – it is what it is, people only pay high salaries and bonuses because they can still make a profit and therefore shareholders are happy.

Moral hazard is a game theory phenomenon, if you play a game once and people lose badly you can help them out, but that will make them less worried about losing the next time they play. Similarly if people cheat and you don’t punish them or even play badly and don’t lose, you create a problem next time you play. Bailing out large numbers of mortgage defaulters creates moral hazard but not punishing people who deceived does too.

It is the job of a CEO to champion a company, but not to lie to shareholders. If things are OK this isn’t an issue and gets forgotten about. There are many CEOs who behaved like Wachovia’s Robert Steel. He appeared on a TV show (Cramer’s Mad Money) that styles what should be the sober, conservative, world of finance into an activity that looks pro-football, with shouting and bright colors and said his team was winning, days before Wachovia collapsed completely. Entertainment freakshows about speculation, are part of the problem – ditching shows like Cramer’s and replacing speculation with sober investment advice from someone like Buffet will happen of its own accord (you don’t get entertainment shows called ‘Mad Money’ in a deep recession), but Steel is a different issue.

You only need to punish a few people to avoid long term moral hazard involving large businesses. It is what it is, and the fear of god needs to be put into executives and CEOs of companies that could fail. This would create both transparency now, for people to see each others hands and a better game next time.

In addition, when you effectively nationalize banking, the shareholders are the country’s voters and they need to be kept happy. Creating a mechanism to put people like Wachovia’s Robert Steel in jail makes both good business sense and keeps the shareholders in a country happy.

Election Debates are Ineffective

Posted by | politics | One Comment

Ordinary people have some idea what the once obscure term LIBOR means, according to a piece on Bloomberg. At the same time, VP candidate, Sarah Palin has recently shown that she: cannot name a US newspaper; a single Supreme Court decision apart from Roe vs Wade; where Gaza is or any impact the $700B might have on the budget.

Today’s Journal, a place where interns know what LIBOR is, leads with the headline: “Biden, Palin Clash on Taxes, Iraq in Sharp Edged Debate“.

How can a TV debate model that fails to smoke out someone who does not understand high school level geography or politics become the de facto forum for voters to asses Presidential and VP candidate ability?

Josh Marshall points out that US TV debates are not actually debates at all, there is no follow up. In interviews with Couric, all of Palin’s knowledge gaps were revealed in simple specific follow up questions after responses that were pure waffle.

If you aren’t born here, in order to be able to vote, there is a method to smoke out people who don’t learn basic principals of the democracy. My wife recently obtained US citizenship, which requires answering questions about things that include the Supreme Court and its decisions.

Sarah Palin revealed in interview that she wouldn’t necessarily be able to pass a test required to vote, and yet a test of whether people should vote for her is described by the Wall Street Journal as ‘sharp’.

The Flaw in the Logic of Clean Tech.

Posted by | business | No Comments

I am back from San Francisco, my favorite place, where the buzzword that comes after Web 1.0 and Web 2.0 is Clean Tech.

There are two possible bogeymen that require investment in energy: expensive oil and global warming. The probable solution to the former is to justify dirty tech, like coal, and the probable solution to the latter is reduction in consumption, which goes against capitalism and, therefore, Venture Capitalism.

In the, ever optimistic, Silicon Valley, Clean Tech Capitalism is being offered as a potential panacea for both situations to combat both environmental and oil supply and demand issues.

Both expensive oil and global warming could in theory be solved by clean tech innovation, but that would require absolutely massive advances in things like portable solar technology to make energy simultaneously cleaner and cheaper than fossil fuels, very quickly. This is less likely than smaller advances in things like digging for coal.

This weakness in the current Clean Tech logic allows for Democrat’s energy stance to be leveraged for different ends by the Republican’s (justifying offshore drilling to combat peak oil, for example). Mark Thoma points out a piece by Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenbergers which argues that the Democrats “must break once and for all from green orthodoxy”.

Information and Evolution

Posted by | half baked ideas | No Comments

I have finally put up some notes, about what I have been thinking about for a very long time, concerning Information Theory and Evolution.

Specifically:

How systems self-emerge and self-configure for information exchange from 0 to 1 to n bits.

How these systems necessarily culminate in the complexity and diversity of living things as a result of rules governing information theory, where natural selection is a specific case of the laws governing noisy information exchange between finite sized systems.

If anyone else is interested in this topic or has any questions, the notes are here, and I’d be happy to hear from you.

The Internet Olympics – at least for people in the US

Posted by | technology | No Comments

China is a long way from anywhere in the US, and even San Francisco, with its Chinese immigrant history and psychological proximity, is nearly 1000 miles farther from Beijing than London is (London – Beijing: 5060 miles, SF – Beijing 5900 miles).

This counterintuitive fact is a result of just how vast the Pacific is and it means that following the games live will be difficult due to the time zone difference. As a result, here in the US, to keep up with the games, the internet will play a bigger factor than ever before. The Official Google Blog has a first stab at a roundup of places to go.

Meanwhile, on Smashing Telly, we have a video clip history of previous Olympic opening ceremonies.

The iPhone will Never be an Enterprise Device

Posted by | business | 2 Comments

The Register points to a Gartner report that suggest that the iPhone may not be an enterprise device because of poor battery life, among other things.

We do not need the Gartner report to nitpick about details, to know that the iPhone is not an enterprise product.

The iPhone is a wonderful, groundbreaking, beautifully designed product, just like the first Macintosh was.

Businesses do not buy groundbreaking, beautifully designed products that give the impression they might be spending too much money, just like they didn’t buy the Macintosh. They will buy a good enough, slightly crappy phone that has a keyboard – the Blackberry.

Salesforce.com is worth more than General Motors

Posted by | business | No Comments

By quite a long margin: 25% more, in fact (Salesforce.com market cap: $7.5B, GM, just under $6B).

Other unlikely companies that are now worth more than GM: Ryan Air; Pitney Bowes; J C Penney; Autodesk; Bed Bath and Beyond. Even tech. train wreck, Sun Microsystems is worth 25% more. And in a case of a piece being worth more than the whole, automobile parts distributor, Genuine Parts Company, and dashboard GPS maker, Garmin, are each worth $500 million more than GM.

Use Google Finance to screen for companies worth more than GM.

An Example of a Selfish Meme Overriding the Selfish Gene

Posted by | darwinism | One Comment

People talk about ‘carrying’ the name forward, when there is a single male in the family to preserve the pedigree of a family name. This is largely bogus, because the name line is merely one strand in the exponentially increasing number of routes that extend backwards as a family tree fans out, and it has ever diluted bearing on genetic ancestry.

Partly because of male pedigree beliefs and the one child per family rule, millions of Chinese girls are suspiciously missing. 119 baby boys are born for every 100 girls, something that doesn’t happen naturally or can yet be produced scientifically, at conception. Some girls were abandoned, some aborted and presumably some murdered.

There now aren’t enough prospective brides to go round. There are predicted to be 30 million unmarried young men in China by 2020 and these people are referred to as bare branches. Bare branches, because their genes will never be passed on.

By wanting to preserve the family name, the chances of your genetic lineage dying out increases, if everyone else behaves the same way.

Ironically, to have preserved your lineage in China, the best strategy would have been to have had a girl.

Culture, like religion, is something that people respect, irrationally, and because of this, the Selfish Meme (Family Lineage) has outwitted the Selfish Gene (Genetic Lineage). This is empirical proof, in some small part, that the effects of ideas, memes, can indeed behave like viruses and be damaging to our (genetic) survival.

People have a tendency, possibly through cultural respect, to look for examples of why religion may be a beneficial development for individuals (that reduces stress and makes us live longer, for example). But here we have a very simple concrete example of a cultural idea that is clearly not beneficial to the propagation of the individual’s DNA, being akin to a mind virus.

Since the distinction between culture and religion is not mutually exclusive, we have the possibility that religion too could be an idea that is damaging to an individual’s survival. Perhaps resistance to this notion is itself due to a cultural virus.